The Future of Hungary
- Timothy
- 4 days ago
- 4 min read
(KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA) - On Sunday, Hungarians head to the polls with a smell of change in the air. For the first time since his first election in 2010, Viktor Orbán seems mortal, as his far-right populist party, Fidesz, is facing a big challenge by Péter Magyar and his centre-right TISZA Party. For an essay that concerns events that are happening very soon, this will cover the rise of Orban, his perception of Hungarians and the world at large, and the future of the European Union after the conclusion of the election.
Rise of Orbán
Viktor Orbán's political journey is marked by a shift from an anti-Soviet student activist rallying against Hungary as a Soviet Satellite State to the stalwart leader of Hungarian illiberal democratic standards, as reported by the Economist Intelligence Unit in their Democracy Index. He was catapulted into the international spotlight by getting elected as Hungary's Prime Minister in 2010 by a landslide through the capitalisation on disgruntled sentiments by the incumbent centre-left government's handling of the 2008 financial crisis.
Since that election, the mandate that was given has allowed Fidesz to fundamentally rewrite the constitution and overhaul key democratic institutions, which has ripple effects to this day. Changes included restricting the powers of the Constitutional Court, restructuring the media landscape in favour of the government, and implementing a new electoral system that disproportionately benefits the ruling party, which so happens to be Fidesz. This process systematically dismantled checks and balances and ensured a supermajority for Fidesz ever since.
Orbán's appeal comes from his nationalistic and populist sentiments, which he claims champion Hungarian sovereignty against perceived foreign interference. His focus on traditional family values and robust border security, which was particularly on display during the 2015 migrant crisis, resonated deeply with a significant portion of the electorate, at least during that time. Additionally, he rose in opposition to what he called "Brussels elites", which are really just European Union bureaucrats, which allows him to paint himself as defending "ordinary Hungarians" from Cosmopolitan elites, while over that time, he has been cosying up to the rich and the powerful - becoming an elitist himself, as is common with populist figures.
Perception
Domestically, Hungarians are mixed, and he is a highly polarising figure in politics. Since his first election in 2010, he and Fidesz have built a loyal voter base, particularly in the rural areas and amongst older voters - similar to right-wing parties across the world. In line with this perception is the sentiment that he defends national sovereignty and identity, while defending pro-family and natalist policy, which many supporters view him as the protector of Hungary. In contrast, urban voters, younger generations, and swing voters are increasingly becoming critical of him. Rampant corruption, economic stagnation and the declining quality of public services were some of the concerns voiced by those outside of Orbán's target demographics. It is interesting to note that Orbán's rhetoric directly contrasts that of public opinion when it comes to the European Union, with 77% and 68% of Hungarians supporting European Union membership and better relations with the Union, respectively.
Within the European Union, however, he has always been a "problem" leader for the leaders of Europe to reason with - even more than other right-wing leaders in other countries. Orbán, in this sense, is viewed highly negatively as he is accused of undermining the rule of law, restricting judicial independence and obviously, corruption involving funds dispensed by the European Union. He has also been at the forefront of votes which are completely opposed to liberal democratic norms, which has not done him any favours in the eyes of Europe at large, additionally perceiving him to be a disruptive and obstructionist member in the European Union.
Across the world, like in Hungary, his figure is polarising. In Western democracies, Orbán is looked upon with negativity. He is associated with democratic backsliding, and has even been described as a title that he himself has embraced - "illiberal leader", and an "authoritarian populist". For the global populist right-wing movement, however, Orbán has garnered a strong following, being praised for his stances on anti-immigration, emphasis on traditional family values and a strong opposition to liberal social policies - insofar as being praised by President Donald Trump, and even being permitted to be the opening speaker at CPAC - the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2022. In Non-Western powers, Orbán maintains close ties to Russia and China - and from the Global South's perspective, he is a useful partner to the inner workings of the European Union, and he is respected as being pragmatic.
Future of the European Union
The European Union is watching the Hungarian elections with bated breath. Many Europeans, from the left, centre-left, the centre and the centre-right, are watching with eagerness to take a shot at the most defiant European Politician of our day. Hungarians know that this is probably their best shot at taking down the Russophilic and highly corrupt leader. As Hungary walks to the polls, the eyes of the entire world will bear upon the land: from all sides.
