Is Meloni In Danger?: Is it Melonover?
- Timothy
- 4 hours ago
- 4 min read
KUALA LAMPUR, MALYSIA — About a week ago, on 22 and 23 of March 2026, Italy went to the polls to vote on a new amendment to the Italian Constitution proposed by Giorgia Meloni’s Government through an initiative pushed by Justice Minister Carlo Nordio. The constitutional ballot initiative, known as Riforma Nordio or the Nordio Reform, would have needed a simple majority in the ballot initiative for it to pass.
However, the result from that election was a defeat for the Meloni Government in a 53.75% to 46.25% win for the “No” vote, with a majority of Italians across all Italian Provinces voting that way. In this article, I will be writing on the details of the reforms and how Italy got here, the official positions of the Italian Political Parties and their reasoning and finally, where the Italian political scene can go from here.
Unlike the United States, the Italian Constitution provides for a clause for a referendum on the proposed constitutional amendment in the absence of a two-thirds majority in both the Chamber of Deputies (Lower House) and the Senate (Upper House). Under Article 138 of the Italian Constitution, when a constitutional bill is approved by an absolute majority (50%+1) but fails to garner a two-thirds majority, a referendum may be requested by one-fifth of the members of either chamber, five regional councils or 500,000 voters.
The reform would have done three major alterations to the judiciary, which were: separating careers between judges and prosecutors, creating two separate self-governing bodies for judges and prosecutors, and establishing a High Disciplinary Court for both judges and prosecutors, as reported by the London School of Economics.
In the current system, it is possible for judges and prosecutors to change their roles, i.e. judges could change their roles to become prosecutors, and vice versa is also possible. The logic in this is that those who have served as a judge or prosecutor could stop them from performing in their roles to the best of their abilities without prejudice. However, it is interesting to note that something similar has been done before: the 2022 Cartabia reform, which allowed only one switch within the first nine years of service in a particular area and even then, it only affected fewer than 0.5% of people who switched.
The real reform is done in the High Disciplinary Court, which restructures the current High Council of the Judiciary [the judiciary’s self-governing body] into two, creating one council for judges and another for prosecutors. Magistrates are selected for these bodies at random, while university professors and lawyers will be drawn from a shortlist. This will also create a hierarchy in Italian judicial tradition as the disciplinary section of the High Council of the Judiciary will be replaced by a High Disciplinary Court, which is selected from the judges at the Court of Cassation, the highest judicial court for civil and criminal matters, which acts as the final court of appeal.
As the Government, all centre-right to right-wing parties supported this reform as they argue that this is needed to tackle a “corporatist” structure within the High Council, which contributes to its politicisation. It is also notable that the courts have been tainted by scandals involving the selection of people to positions of power in the administration. As the opposition, all centre-left to left-wing parties opposed the reform as they see that this reform threatens the separation of powers, particularly between the executive and the judiciary - two of the strongest powers in Montesquieu's theory of trias politica.
Additionally, leader of the Opposition Elly Schlein claimed that the reform does not improve the system but rather serves to manipulate it, arguing they "want to be controlled" by an independent judiciary, not weaken it. Ultimately, the main point of contention was the separation of careers between judges and prosecutors, which many on the left see as an increasingly isolated Public Prosecution Service to come under the control of the Executive, which in Italy would be the Prime Minister and their Cabinet, and by association, be subject to politicisation.
As asserted earlier, Meloni lost the vote quite handily in a 53.75% of valid ballots rejecting to 46.25% of valid ballots affirming the measure, and all states in Italy voted to reject the measure. This is a huge blow to the Prime Minister, akin to that of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s failed ballot initiative to reform the legislative branch. The difference is that the former Prime Minister vowed to resign if he lost the ballot initiative, which he did early on as his initiative went on to be defeated in a 60-40 split. However, at this moment in time, the left has the advantage.
The centre-left Partito Democratico (PD) under the leadership of Elly Schlein undoubtedly have the momentum going forward. Ever since being elected in 2023 with the help of a large left-wing coalition of factions, she has moved PD more to the left as she appeals to the people who have felt abandoned by the PD’s move to the centre under Matteo Renzi, including workers, the disillusioned and the youth amongst other demographic groups - and it’s seemed to have worked. In the most recent polling numbers conducted between 12 and 25 March 2026, as published on Europe Elects, PD’s polling figures have increased to 23%, up from 19.1% in the 2022 General Election, and increased by 1% since a poll conducted between 10 and 11 March.
By contrast, Meloni’s far-right FdI party has increased by 1% since the General Election, but notably, it has decreased by 2% since the 10 and 11 March polling period. PD and the left are gaining ground, and if they were to propose more radically left-wing populist policies, they might be able to topple Meloni’s party in the near future, which has the number one party in the polls.
