London local elections: Farage's plan to divide the city
- Lucy Lydekker
- 15 hours ago
- 5 min read
Local elections take place in Greater London on 7 May 2026 to elect the 32 borough councils across the city. With the Labour party doing so poorly in the polls after nearly two years in government, and the Conservatives still unable to find their place in the political landscape, these elections are expected to see massive Reform and Green gains.
Several London-wide MRP polls suggest* that Reform UK has a shot at winning the highest vote share in four of the 32 boroughs: Barking & Dagenham, Bexley, Bromley, and Havering; while the Greens are projected to do well in Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham, and Waltham Forest. Lambeth in particular would be a devastating loss where two former council leaders, Steve Reed and Jim Dickson, are now the Housing Secretary and MP for Dartford respectively; and where Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's former infamous chief of staff, made his beginnings.
There will be a massive treasure trove of results over the next week to dive into, from the weirdness of 5 party politics across the city, to the various independent or minor party victories which are expected in Newham and Tower Hamlets. But before that, there's been some bizarre proposals said on the campaign trail.
During a campaign stop to Bromley, Nigel Farage suggested that some of the outer boroughs ought to secede from Greater London. The architect of Brexit, presumably experienced with this sort of stir of emotions, said "Go further out to where I was born", near Biggin Hill, "it's sheep farms. How is Sadiq Khan the Mayor of that?", the clearest indication that this is a simple political gimmick.
London has grown significantly over time, helped by the industrial revolution and population boom from the empire. The County of London was created in 1889 to cover places that are synonymous with London today from Greenwich to Westminster to Chelsea to Paddington. The home counties of Middlesex, Kent, and Surrey, all take substantial hits to their territories as land was ceded to the growing London metropolis then.
The county was replaced by Greater London in 1965 to reflect the rapid changes to the metropolis after both world wars. This move again took territory from the home counties, including the abolition of Middlesex, and expanded London's definition to include places such as Wembley (the home of the England football team stadium), both Heathrow and Gatwick airports, areas up-stream of the Thames such as Richmond and Kingston, and quintessential London areas like Croydon and Tottenham.
There has been a view by some people that the areas part of London since 1965 aren't 'truly' London, whether thats because they retained their old postcode or because they didn't feel urban enough, but it's a fact that all of these areas benefit through London-wide schemes, access to Transport for London, and are under the authority of the Greater London Council.
This is at odds for somebody like Farage though, because Greater London will always vote to the left because it is dominated by the most populous urban progressive core. Sadiq Khan for Labour was re-elected to a third term in 2024 as Mayor of London, and the left has historically done extraordinary well in London as one of their main bases. Even when the city votes for a conservative, it is based on being a wacky and socially liberal candidate like Boris Johnson pretended to be before his involvement in the Brexit campaign and subsequent premiership.
It is interesting the three boroughs he picked out as those which could secede: Bromley, Havering, and Barking & Dagenham. All three of these, plus Bexley, are in South East and North East London, and are expected to vote the most for Reform. He claimed that these three were hit hardest by the expansion of the ultra-low emission zone in 2023, which put a charge on high-emission vehicles in Greater London. This would've hit these areas the hardest because of a lack of public transport compared to other boroughs, forcing people onto roads.
There is a point to be made about the lack of transport in the outer boroughs, to be fair. Bromley is the largest borough geographically, and has only National Rail services, one Overground interchange at Beckenham Junction on the far west, and severe lack of coverage in places like Biggin Hill. The two boroughs north of the river both have links to the Elizabeth and District lines, but very few rail links beyond that.
You could argue that he doesn't target other boroughs as potential seceders because there are less pro-car activists where there is more public transport such as in these areas, which might be the case but I believe he is targeting these boroughs in particular because, if there was a decision to move these back into their original counties, they would be returned to counties that heavily vote for the right.
Surrey is dominated by liberals. The Conservatives had it as their stronghold but lost a significant number of seats there in the 2024 general election because voters believed they had moved too far to the right, and voted Liberal Democrat. One of the biggest surprises of the night was Jeremy Hunt holding onto his seat of Godalming and Ash here, having positioned himself as a moderate Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer under Rishi Sunak. Just like rich areas in Kensington and Chelsea, its unlikely that Reform's appeal to the working class would make as significant an inroad here as much as other places. Likewise, you see Richmond and Kingston in London voting for the Liberal Democrats. Reform wouldn't be in contention to win there.
Whereas you look to the counties that these boroughs would go back to. Havering, and Barking & Dagenham, would both return to Essex: the county elected 2 of the 5 Reform MPs at the 2024 general election, including Farage's seat of Clacton (formerly one of the safest Conservative seats in the country). Pollcheck estimates that at tomorrow's 2026 elections that Reform will win 59 of the 78 seats up for election, over three quarters of the council, up from zero seats in 2021.
Bromley and Bexley would both return to Kent: the 2025 Kent County Council elections saw Reform win 70% of the seats, and the defections to Restore Britain and others from that group are nearly the size of the official Liberal Democrat opposition on the council. The same council that from 2013 to 2017 had UKIP as the official opposition to the Conservatives, another Farage venture.
Therefore its clear to me that any attempt to orchestrate anti-London sentiment in these outer boroughs, to make them associate more with Reform-controlled (or Reform winnable areas), is just a ploy by Reform to attempt a gerrymander and extend their area of control. Farage said, "I think there is a possibility of the outer London boroughs at some point in the next few years having a referendum on deciding on what they want their future to be.", a similar attempt at division that Farage managed for the 2016 Brexit referendum. There is no need, or sentiment, to secede.
*the three pollsters are YouGov, More in Common, and JLPartners. All have slightly different results, but broadly show these parties are either projected to win the highest vote share or within a margin of error of that.
