2026 Scottish parliament election results

(LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM) -- The 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections took place earlier this May to elect all 129 members of the Scottish parliament, also known as Holyrood.

Headline news is that the Scottish National Party (SNP) has won a historic fifth term, and incumbent First Minister John Swinney will remain in office. The party, which aligned with Greens/EFA in the European parliament prior to Brexit, does have a minor conservative faction, but it is expected that they will govern to the left of the UK-wide Labour government, promising a lower cap to bus fares and a legal price ceiling on essential groceries; nevertheless, Donald Trump congratulated Swinney on his victory on Truth Social.

The SNP, however, did not win an overall majority, the threshold that Swinney set as a mandate for an independence referendum, although it seems he will push for one regardless. The party actually received its worst result since 2007, the first time it came to power under Alex Salmond, with 58 seats, down 6 and 7 short of an overall majority. This likely won’t impact their ambition, however, as the separatist group of MSPs has actually grown to its largest number in Scottish parliamentary history when combined with the Scottish Greens, who also favour independence. 

The Scottish Greens, a separate party from Polanki’s Greens in England & Wales, achieved a record 15 seats, that’s up 7 seats from the 2021 election, which was their previous high. The two combined have 73 pro-independence MSPs compared to 56 MSPs against, which is one higher than in 2021. Under former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP and Scottish Greens negotiated the Bute House Agreement to collaborate in government.

This was broken by her successor, Humza Yousaf, who sacked both Green ministers in a move that brought down his government. It is possible that they re-enter government in a new agreement with Swinney, or stay out and pressure the SNP in a supply & confidence deal.

This election was also remarkably successful for progressives. Of course, the simple fact that the Scottish Greens won their record number of seats as the most progressive and left-wing party in the Scottish parliament is an indication of this, but there are a few more. First, the Liberal Democrats were the main beneficiaries of seats in the constituency vote.

To avoid explaining the ins and outs of the electoral system, Scotland has 73 first-past-the-post constituencies and 56 party-list seats elected via proportional representation. There was some concern that the populist right party Reform UK could win a constituency seat, but they didn’t, while the socially liberal Lib Dems picked up 3 former SNP seats.

Second, the Scottish Greens won their first-ever constituency seats, and won two of them. Until now, every Green seat had been attained through the party list allocation, but they made breakthroughs in Edinburgh Central under former co-leader Lorna Slater, and in Glasgow Southside under Holly Bruce. The Greens also won 3 of the 6 proportional seats in the entire Edinburgh & Lothians East region.

Third, the anti-trans MSP Ash Regan, a former cabinet minister who unsuccessfully stood for SNP leader a few years ago, ran as an independent (after a brief stint in the defunct right-wing Alba party) in the Edinburgh region too and got less than 2,000 votes. Fourth, two trans MSPs were elected, the first two ever elected to Holyrood. Q Manivannan and Iris Duane were both elected via the Scottish Greens party list in the Edinburgh & Lothians East, and Glasgow regions, respectively, which will give the trans community much-needed representation in government. 

Absent from this whole discussion have been the two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives. The former had their worst-ever result in the Scottish parliament, which they controlled from its inception in 1999 until 2007 (in coalitions, which was seen as a feature of the proportional electoral system). In fact, Labour has never gained seats in any Scottish election, and this time they lost 5 seats from their 2021 result.

This is viciously funny, because at the 2024 UK-wide general election, Labour won 65% of constituencies in Scotland compared to the SNP’s 15% of constituencies, leading Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar to believe he could become the country’s next first minister- he could not. Labour did, however, finish joint second with Reform on 17 seats, but far below their ambitions.

The Conservatives, who had come 2nd place at the 2021 election, placed fifth this time around. Let that sink in. They won just 12 seats, four of them in constituencies, which was down 19 from last time- that is a 61% loss of seats. They aren’t even the most populous right-wing party anymore, being completely surplanted by Reform UK, and losing their status as the largest opposition party. It must be very difficult now for the Conservatives to set out where their place is in the Scottish political system, especially with Labour shifting to the right on some cultural issues. We can’t totally say that Reform is cemented, though.

While they soared to joint second on 17 seats in their first Holyrood election, they only managed 16% of the party vote, which is 10 pts lower than the 26% they achieved in the projected national vote share from the England local elections, implying that the right-wing simply has a much harder time having any success in Scotland.

One final notable thing about this election is the successful election of SNP MP Stephen Gethins and the SNP Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, in the Scottish Parliament. You are unable to serve simultaneously as a member of the House of Commons and the Scottish Parliament, and therefore, both MPs will resign as promised. Stephen Flynn signalled at the most recent PMQs that it might be his last, but his interventions will be sorely missed.

The two resignations will prompt two by-elections that will take place later this year in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and Aberdeen South. In the former, the SNP beat Labour by only 800 votes, while Labour were neck and neck with the Conservatives for second place in the latter, but the political atmosphere has changed so drastically since 2024 that the winner may be unpredictable, so stay tuned for those.